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HomeNews WireUK Retail Sales Remain Steady, US Building Permits and Housing Starts Decline

UK Retail Sales Remain Steady, US Building Permits and Housing Starts Decline

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UK Retail Sales, Canada PPI, and US Building Permits and Housing Starts are among the key economic indicators to look out for on Friday. In the UK, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3% for the three-month period to September, with an employment change of -198K. The average earnings including bonus are projected to rise to 8.3%, while average earnings excluding bonus are expected to remain at 7.8%.

In the US, there is no consensus yet for the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The Core CPI year-on-year (Y/Y) is anticipated to remain steady at 4.1%, with a month-on-month (M/M) reading of 0.3%. The recent Fedspeak has leaned towards a hawkish approach, and although the market expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates until mid-2024, another rate hike cannot be ruled out if the upcoming CPI reports disappoint and reveal persistent underlying inflation. The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report in December will also play a significant role in shaping the Fed’s decision-making process.

Moving to Australia, the Wage Price Index for the third quarter is expected to see a quarter-on-quarter (Q/Q) increase of 1.3% and a year-on-year (Y/Y) figure of 3.9%. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently raised interest rates by 25 basis points, citing unexpectedly high services inflation. The central bank has left the possibility of further tightening open, stating that it will depend on data and the evolving assessment of risks.

Back in the UK, the Consumer Price Index is predicted to drop to 4.8% Y/Y, with a month-on-month reading of 0.1%. The Core CPI is expected to show a Y/Y figure of 5.8% and an M/M figure of 0.4%. The Bank of England (BoE) has maintained interest rates in its last two meetings, but if this week’s employment and inflation data surpass expectations, it may become challenging for the bank to continue holding rates steady.

Shifting focus to the US, Retail Sales have been strong in recent months. However, it is anticipated that the data will show a decline of -0.1% month-on-month, compared to a 0.7% increase previously. Although this data is unlikely to alter the Federal Reserve’s stance, the central bank may not view excessively strong figures positively.

In Australia, the employment change is expected to reach 18K, up from the previous 6.7K, with the unemployment rate ticking higher to 3.7% compared to 3.6% prior. While the labor market has shown signs of cooling, it remains historically tight, and the RBA would prefer to see further softening.

Finally, in the US, Jobless Claims have indicated a softening labor market due to fewer job opportunities rather than increased layoffs. Continuing Claims have been steadily rising, while Initial Claims have remained subdued at around the 200-220K level. Although there is no consensus yet for this week’s data, it is regarded as one of the most crucial releases.

These economic indicators provide valuable insight into the state of various economies and can potentially impact monetary policy decisions. Investors and analysts will closely monitor the outcomes, as they could influence market trends and the future actions of central banks.

More detail via ForexLive here… ( Image via ForexLive )

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